Farmers are facing a perfect storm as the sowing season is about to start

As Australia’s winter cropping season approaches, farmers are facing increasing uncertainty around the cost and availability of vital inputs: fertilisers and fuel.

Professor Marit Kragt highlights in The Conversation how fertiliser and fuel are essential inputs for winter crop production. Fuel underpins all farm management operations, including sowing, fertilising, disease management, liming, harvesting. Without nutrients from fertilisers, crops won’t reach their yield potential.

Global supply chain disruptions as a result of the war in the Middle East have driven up the price of both essential inputs. Many Australian farmers are facing uncertainty, not knowing whether they’ll be able to secure adequate fuel and fertiliser for the growing season.

Source: Argus Media

From an agricultural economics perspective, this uncertainty has real implications for decision-making on farms. Farmers may choose to reduce input use, alter crop mixes, or delay investment decisions, all of which can affect yields, profitability, and ultimately national production levels. These are not just short-term adjustments; they can have longer-term impacts on soil health, farm resilience, and supply chains.

Importantly, these pressures are not experienced evenly. Larger operations may have greater capacity to absorb cost increases or hedge against volatility, while smaller or more exposed farms may face tighter margins and higher risk. This raises broader questions about the role of policy in supporting the sector through periods of instability.

At the UWA Centre for Agricultural Economics and Development (CAED), we are particularly interested in how farmers respond to these kinds of pressures. How are decisions made under uncertainty, and what does this mean for productivity, sustainability, and regional economies. Understanding these dynamics is critical for designing effective policies and industry responses that are grounded in the realities of Australian farming systems.

Prof Kragt’s advice was reported in the ABC’s 7.30 news report (available on ABC iView, Thursday, 2^nd April 2026) and on ABC Radio National PM (Monday 6^th April 2026).

As the season unfolds, attention will turn to how farmers respond, and what this reveals about the resilience of Australia’s agricultural systems.

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For more information:

Prof. Marit Kragt: marit.kragt@uwa.edu.au

CAED website: https://www.uwacaed.org/